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6/12/06City of Yelm Planning Commission 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Next regular meeting Monday, July 17, 2006 - 4:00 P.M. Yelm City Hall Council Chambers Enclosures are available to non-Commission members upon request. It is the City of Yelm's policy to provide reasonable accommodations for people with disabilities. If you are a person with a disability in need of accommodations to conduct business, or to participate in government processes or activities, please contact Agnes Bennick, at 360-458-8404 at least four (4) working days prior to the scheduled event. All Planning Commission meetings are audio taped. For information on obtaining a copy, please call the Community Development Department at (360) 458-3835. AGENDA Yelm Planning Commission Monday, June 12, 2006 4:00 P.M. Yelm City Hall 105 Yelm Avenue West Call to Order and Roll Call Approval of Minutes: May 15, 2006 Public Communications not associated with agenda items Public Hearings: None Scheduled Other a. Old Business -Comprehensive Plan Update -Report from Subcommittee (Kathy McCormick, lead) b. New Business -Comprehensive Plan Update -Open House Schedule (Kathy McCormick, lead) Adjourn #. Summary of Proposal, Issues, Analysis & Rationale Summary of Recommendations Proposal Title: 2006 Proposed Amendments to the Yelm Comprehensive Plan and Yelm/Thurston County Joint Plan Affected Chapters: Chapter I I -Growth Management Act Planning Parameters Chapter III -Land Use Chapter IV -Housing Chapter XI I -Environment Chapter XIV -Miscellaneous Provisions Proposed By: City of Yelm Staff Contacts: Kathy McCormick, AICP, Senior Planner Grant Beck, Community Development Director Proposal Description: ^ Map Change(s) ^ Text Change(s) ^ Both ^ Affects Unified Development Code, other plans/documents? ^ Affects County or applies to Urban Growth Area? Summary of Proposal The proposed comprehensive plan amendments to Growth Area (UGA) will bring the plan up to date - information -and keep the plan in compliance wit Management Act. 1 ssues, Analysis & Rationale the City of Yelm and Yelm Urban making use of the latest available h the State of Washington Growth Background The City of Yelm requested an update of its 2005 City of Yelm Comprehensive Plan. Sections of the plan proposed for amendments will bring the plan up to date and compliant with the State Growth Management Act. Amendments proposed are joint plan amendments which will go through both the City of Yelm and Thurston County amendment process. This is necessary since Thurston County has a joint plan agreement with the cities and have adopted policies that will guide development in areas that are not yet annexed to the city but that are included within the identified city urban growth area. All amendments except for the minor amendment to Chapter XII and XIV will be included in the joint plan amendment review. Chapter I Page 1 Process -All amendments were prepared with the assistance of a Yelm Planning Commission subcommittee and then the Yelm Planning Commission as a whole. An open house was held to solicit comments on the proposals before the amendments went to both the county and city planning commissions for public hearing and review. A recommendation will be sent by the Yelm Planning Commission to the Yelm City Council who will hear the amendment and either approve, deny or amend the proposals. The Board of County Commissioners will hear the joint plan amendments and will also rule on those amendments. Proposed amendments are shown in bill format (old text proposed for deletion is shown in strikeea~and newly proposed or updated information is shown in underline.) See attached text. Issues 1. The plan amendments proposed use the latest available information for Thurston County and Yelm to update: a. Population projections between 2005 and 2030, and b. Information that confirms that Yelm and its UGA have sufficient area to accommodate projected growth c. The Housing Chapter which has been extensively updated using information from the 2000 census, TRPC's buildable lands project, The Profile, and the Thurston County Housing Authority. 2. Reference to short or long term boundaries are no longer relevant in Thurston County and will be amended. References to short and long term growth boundaries are a remnant of early growth boundary discussion and action in Thurston County that took place in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Reference to short or long term boundaries are no longer relevant in Thurston County and will be amended. 3. An amendment to the State GMA requires a policy that discourages the siting of incompatible uses adjacent to military bases. A policy has been added that will note this. 4. An amendment has been proposed to update a reference to the definition of wetlands by noting that Yelm's wetland protection regulation will use techniques considered to be the best available science in accordance with adopted laws. 5 Replacement of Exhibit B -Populations Forecast with the June 2005 transmittal information from TRPC regarding approved Population Forecast Small Area Allocations. 6. Removal of Exhibit G -Consolidated List of Policies -applicable to the Yelm UGA. These are no longer necessary since Chapter I -Introduction, B. Content, and C. Applicability, identify portions of the plan applicable to the Yelm UGA. Chapter I Page 2 options Option 1 -Approve the amendments as proposed Option 2 - Do not approve amendments as proposed Option 3 -Revise amendments as proposed and approve them Effect of the Change The Yelm Comprehensive Plan will be brought up to date so that it meets the basic tenants of the State Growth Management Act, and includes the latest data and information available in Thurston County regarding growth projections and housing needs. Proponent's Case The Yelm Comprehensive Plan should be updated in order to continue to provide the framework for City and UGA area development regulations and land use decisions and meet the State Growth Management Act requirements. Conclusions/Rationale Adopt the Yelm and Yelm UGA amendments as proposed. The plan was adopted in good faith and with these amendments will: 1) continue to provide the framework for development regulations and land use decisions, and 2) incorporate changes and requirements of the Washington State Growth Management Act. Staff Contact: Kathy McCormick, AICP, Senior Planner Grant Beck, Community Development Director Summary of Recommendations: See Attachment. Approve the amendments as shown and described above to: Chapter II -Growth Management Act Planning Parameters (including replacement of Exhibit B -Population Projections and elimination of Exhibit G -Consolidated List of Policies Applicable to the Unincorporated Yelm Urban Growth Area ) Chapter III -Land Use Chapter IV -Housing Chapter XI I -Environment Chapter XIV -Miscellaneous Provisions Yelm Staff Recommendation: Yelm Planning Commission Recommendation: Yelm/2006/analysis\Yelm and UGA analysis.doc Chapter I Page 3 City of Yelm Review Draft May 22, 2006 Comprehensive Plan Update 2006 Chapter I Page 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS A. Intent ........................................................................................................................ ........... 5 B. Content ..................................................................................................................... ...........6 C. Applicability .............................................................................................................. ........... 7 D. Consistency .............................................................................................................. ...........9 II. Growth Management Act Planning Parameters ............................................................... .........10 A. Policies ..................................................................................................................... .........10 B. Population and Demographics ................................................................................. .........13 C. Urban Growth Area Boundaries ............................................................................... .........15 D. The Planning Sub-Areas .......................................................................................... .........16 E. Public Participation ................................................................................................... .........19 III. Land Use ......................................................................................................................... .........20 A. Policy Guide ............................................................................................................. .........20 B. Land Use Patterns ................................................................................................... .........20 C. Changing the Land Use Map ................................................................................... .........22 E. Transfer of Development Rights Program ............................................................... .........23 E. The Planning Sub-Areas -City of Yelm and UGA Land Needs Assessment ......... .........24 IV. Housing ........................................................................................................................... .........29 A. Introduction .............................................................................................................. .........29 B. Inventory and Analysis ............................................................................................ ..........30 C. Goals and Policies .................................................................................................. ..........43 D. Future Needs and Alternatives ............................................................................... ..........44 XIV. Miscellaneous Provisions ............................................................................................ ..........70 A. Property Rights ....................................................................................................... ..........70 B. Permits .................................................................................................................... .......... 70 C. Citizen Participation ................................................................................................ ..........70 D. Growth Management Act Planning ......................................................................... .......... 70 E. Comprehensive Plan Amendment .......................................................................... .......... 70 F. Growth Management Definitions and Concepts ..................................................... ..........71 Sum mary of the New Allocations ..................................................................................... ............5 I. INTRODUCTION A. Intent The Yelm Comprehensive Plan represents the vision of the City of Yelm for development of the community over the next 258 years. This Plan also serves as the Joint Plan between Yelm and Thurston County for Yelm's Urban Growth Area. The Plan is written in the context of the State Growth Management Act, which mandates issues which must be dealt with in a comprehensive plan and County-Wide Planning Policies which identify how certain aspects of growth management planning are to be met in Thurston County. Relevant County-Wide Policies in place at the adoption of this plan are included at Tab 1. The narrative portions of the Plan identify specific goals and objectives of the City for the Urban Growth Area which shall be considered policies for purposes of consistency. Chapter I Page 5 The purpose of the Joint Comprehensive Plan (the "Plan") is to identify how development is to occur over the next 259 years for the City area and for the County area within the Urban Growth Area which will eventually be served by City of Yelm public facilities and utilities. The Plan is to be revisited not less than each ~+ve-seven years to review population progress, the effectiveness of the existing plan, and the need for change. B. Content The Plan is designed to incorporate and coordinate many of the Yelm planning documents into a coordinated whole. For purposes of a complete picture, the "Yelm Comprehensive Plan" consists of the following documents: VOLUME 1 Comprehensive Plan Text Applicable to Entire City and UGA? Chapter I Introduction yes Chapter II GMA Planning Parameters yes Chapter III Land Use yes Chapter IV Housing yes Chapter V Public Facilities & Utilities yes Chapter VI Transportation yes Chapter VII Parks/Open Space no Chapter VIII Economic Development no Chapter IX Siting Essential Public Facilities yes Chapter X Capital Facilities Plan no Chapter XI Visioning no Chapter XII Environment no Chapter XIII Historic Preservation no Chapter XIV Miscellaneous Provisions no Exhibit A County-Wide Planning Policies (August 1993) yes Exhibit B Population Projections yes Exhibit C Yelm Open Space Ordinance, amended 8/94 no Exhibit D Interim Yelm Critical Areas Resources Land Ordinance, no 9/92 Exhibit E Regional Transportation Improvement Program, 1995-1997 (September 1994) no Exhibit F Essential Public Facilities Comprehensive Plan Provisions (January 1994) yes ~~"zm,ibrc v r~SQlivai°~-z;sT--a#-Del~sies; ~~ITsa~~~~-~h~ f-e ~} Map 1 Urban Growth Boundary yes Map 2 Existing City Limits and Zoning no Map 3 Future Land Use yes Map 4 Critical Area and Shoreline Designations yes Chapter I Page 6 Map 5 Critical Aquifer Designation yes Map 6 The Subareas yes Map 7 East Planning Subarea yes Map 8 South Planning Subarea yes Map 9 Southwest Planning Subarea yes Map 10 Northwest Planning Subarea yes Map 11 Developed, Unbuildable, and Developable Lands yes Appendix A Yelm Comprehensive Transportation Plan, August 1992 yes Appendix B Yelm Comprehensive Water Plan, August 1994 no Appendix C Yelm Comprehensive Sewer Plan, August 1994 no Appendix D Yelm Parks Plan, 1987 Appendix E Yelm Economic Development Summit, 1988 Appendix F Yelm Visioning Plan, [pending] Appendix G Private Utility Planning for the Yelm Area 1. Electric 2. Gas 3. Telephone 4. Cable I A~end~~ fle C. Applicability The Comprehensive Plan is intended to apply to the entire Urban Growth Area. Jurisdictionally, the Plan will be implemented in the City by the City of Yelm within the City limits and in the unincorporated Urban Growth Area by Thurston County. Thurston County will adopt the following sections or portions of sections of the Yelm Comprehensive Plan and Joint Plan as applicable to the unincorporated Urban Growth Area: Cha ter Section I. Introduction Whole Cha ter II. GMA Planning A.1. Growth Management Act Parameters A.2. Countywide Planning Policies B.1. Basis for Land Use Planning C. Urban Growth Area Boundaries D. The Planning Sub-Areas E.2. Provide Public Notice E.3. Provide Op ortunit for Public Input Chapter I Page 7 Cha ter Section III. Land Use A. Policy Guide B.2. Proposed Land Use Designations (subsection a.(i) and e. only) C. Changing the Land Use Map D . Intergovernmental Coordination E. Transfer of Development Rights Program F. Plannin Subareas-Potential Land Uses IV. Housing Whole Chapter, except Goal 2 and policies 1-2, 2-1, 5-2 and 5-4 V. Public Facilities and F. Overall Goals and Policies, except Goal 1 and Utilities Polic 1-1 VI. Trans ortation Whole Chapter IX. Siting Essential Public Whole Chapter Facilities XIV. Miscellaneous A. Property Rights Provisions B. Permits C. Citizen Participation E. Com rehensive Plan Amendment Exhibit A, County-wide Whole Exhibit Plannin Policies Exhibit B, Population Whole Exhibit Pro'ections Exhibit F, Essential Public Whole Exhibit Facilities, Comprehensive Plan Provisions whihi~ /~ (`nn~nlirl~+}orl I ic4 .,. 9~-~A~iG1eS \/~Mnlo Cvhihi4 Maps 1. Urban Growth Area Boundary 3. Future Land Use 4. Critical Areas 5. Critical Areas 6. Sub-Area 7. East Sub-Area 8. South Sub-Area 9. Southwest Sub-Area 10. Northwest Sub-Area Volume 2, Yelm Whole Plan and FEIS, but not the Transportation Plan Comprehensive Assumptions, and the Yelm Comprehensive Transportation Plan and Transportation Plan Supplement Final Environmental Impact Statement Chapter l Page 8 Thurston County will also adopt the following portions of the Draft Thurston County Comprehensive Plan as applicable to the unincorporated Urban Growth Area for Yelm: Cha ter Sections 6, Capital Facilities Whole Chapter 7, Private Utilities Whole Cha ter 8, Economic Development Whole Cha ter 9, Natural Environment Whole Cha ter 10, Historic Resources Whole Chapter 11, Plan Amendments I. General Provisions II.A. Joint Plan Amendments II.D. Legislative Amendments Proposed by the Public III. Site-Specific (Quasi-Judicial) Amendments IV. Appeals 12, Glossa Whole Chapter Appendix B, General Whole Appendix Schedule for Annual Comprehensive Plan Amendments Map 34, Intercity Transit Whole Map Routes The City and the County r~teA~:ai~have an urban services agreement and cooperation through permit processing and development regulations to implement the intent of this Plan. D. Consistency The Joint Comprehensive Plan for the Urban Growth Area incorporates and consolidates much of the planning which has been going on in the UGA. Many plans, including transportation and water, were completed using assumptions or calculations somewhat different from the assumptions used in this Comprehensive Plan. Where a variation exists, the more recent shall control and nonconforming plans are to be modified accordingly. Chapter I Page 9 II. GROWTH MANAGEMENT ACT PLANNING PARAMETERS A. Policies Note: See Chapter 1, Page 1, Introduction, B. Content which identifies portions of the flan applicable to the City and UGA areas and C. Applicability for a list of the goals and policies applicable to the unincorporated portion of the Yelm Urban Growth Areas Growth Management Act The City of Yelm is participating in comprehensive planning under the provisions of the Growth Management Act, Chapter 36.70A RCW. The purpose of the Act is to promote responsive, responsible local planning to accomplish thirteen identified statewide goals. The goals in effect at the time this Plan is being adopted provide: The following State Growth Management Act goals are adopted to guide the development and adoption of comprehensive plans and development regulations of those counties and cities that are required or choose to plan under RCW 36.70A.040. The following goals are not listed in order of priority and shall be used exclusively for the purpose of guiding the development of comprehensive plans and development regulations: (1) Urban growth. Encourage development in urban areas where adequate public facilities and services exist or can be provided in an efficient manner. (2) Reduce sprawl. Reduce the inappropriate conversion of undeveloped land into sprawling, low-density development. (3) Transportation. Encourage efficient multimodal transportation systems that are based on regional priorities and coordinated with county and city comprehensive plans. (4) Housing. Encourage the availability of affordable housing to all economic segments of the population of this state, promote a variety of residential densities and housing types, and encourage preservation of existing housing stock. (5) Economic development. Encourage economic development throughout the state that is consistent with adopted comprehensive plans, promote economic opportunity for all citizens of this state, especially for unemployed and for disadvantaged persons, promote the retention and expansion of existing businesses and recruitment of new businesses, recognize regional differences impacting economic development opportunities, and encourage growth in areas experiencing insufficient Chapter II Page 10 economic growth, all within the capacities of the state's natural resources, public services, and public facilities. (6) Property rights. Private property shall not be taken for public use without just compensation having been made. The property rights of landowners shall be protected from arbitrary and discriminatory actions. (7) Permits. Applications for both state and local government permits should be processed in a timely and fair manner to ensure predictability. (8) Natural resource industries. Maintain and enhance natural resource- based industries, including productive timber, agricultural, and fisheries industries. Encourage the conservation of productive forest lands and productive agricultural lands, and discourage incompatible uses. (9) Open space and recreation. Retain open space, enhance ~^^^~'r°^° ~~° recreational opportunities, conserve fish and wildlife habitat, increase access to natural resource lands and water, and develop parks and recreation facilities. (10) Environment. Protect the environment and enhance the state's high quality of life, including air and water quality, and the availability of water. (11) Citizen participation and coordination. Encourage the involvement of citizens in the planning process and ensure coordination between communities and jurisdictions to reconcile conflicts. (12) Public facilities and services. Ensure that those public facilities and services necessary to support development shall be adequate to serve the development at the time the development is available for occupancy and use without decreasing current service levels below locally established minimum standards. (13) Historic preservation. Identify and encourage the preservation of lands, sites, and structures, that have historical or archaeological significance. RCW 36.70A.020 The purpose of this Comprehensive Plan is to identify how the statewide goals will be met in the City of Yelm and the UGA. Procedural guidelines for the adoption of this plan were provided by the Washington State Department of Community, Trade and Economic Development under WAC 365-195-300 which were followed in the preparation of this document. 2. County-Wide Planning Policies (CWPP) Thurston County, with the advice of the Cities and Towns in Thurston County, adopted County-Wide Planning Policies (CWPP) to aid and focus the Growth Management planning activities in Thurston County. These County-Wide Planning Policies were specifically approved by the City of Yelm. The CWPP in effect at the time the City of Yelm adopted its Comprehensive Plan are as set forth at Exhibit A. The purpose of this Comprehensive Plan is to identify how the Chapter II Page 11 CWPP, as applicable, will be implemented in the City of Yelm and the UGA. The County-Wide Planning Policies are specifically adopted as the policy base for the Joint Plan in both the incorporated and unincorporated areas of the Yelm Urban Growth Area. 3. City of Yelm's Objectives a. Background The City of Yelm is a small town located in Northeastern Thurston County at the junction of two state highways. Growth in the vicinity is determined by the community's proximity to Fort Lewis and the rapidly growing Pierce County area, from Puyallup and Fredrickson toward the north, to Spanaway and Roy toward the south. The City of Yelm is also subject to growth pressures spilling over from the Thurston County metropolitan area and particularly the Lacey/East Lacey suburbs of the Lacey Urban Growth Management Area. It is expected that the growth induced by the development of the major planned communities at DuPont, Meridian Campus, and Hawks Prairie will also spur growth in the Yelm area, as will the Thurston Highlands Planned Community, which is being designed to reach the recreational/golf/retirement market which does not now exist in the area as a focus development. In addition, Yelm is the urban center providing many of the urban services for a large suburban/rural community located in the Northeast Thurston County area. b. Comprehensive Plan Purpose The purpose of Yelm's Comprehensive Plan is to identify how the City will prepare for and deal with growth which it is legally required to accommodate under the State Growth Management Act, as well as the other forces which will shape and guide the community in the future. Yelm's Comprehensive Plan is a continuation of the Joint Planning process between the City of Yelm and Thurston County prior to 1990. (That Draft Plan is included as Volume 5/Appendix H for reference purposes, but is superseded by this Comprehensive Plan for all policy purposes). The stated purpose of that Joint Plan was "to promote consistency of local plans and certainty about future development," which continues to be the focus of City planning under this Comprehensive Plan. The Comprehensive Plan identifies the policy base for implementing the County-Wide Planning Policies (copy attached at Exhibit A) within the Yelm Urban Growth Area, including both incorporated and unincorporated Urban Growth Areas. Chapter II Page 12 B. Population and Demographics 1. Basis for Land Use Planning a. Forecasted Population: (see Exhibit B for details) _ Volm I Irhon (_`rn~edh 4rc~ _ ~-f-d d;E~-t ti--1-~~J~ ti-z; !-cTt t(~-,d~c9cy rl i ~n ~ r i r i 6a n a ~ ~ l ~ n ° -~c ~ ~ h ~ ro nrn m m n~J ~ ~~ -vTC~ ° ~ph7~ui arr rg- . ~i ' i~v- -. i ~ rt i - •.r ~ n . am "~ ~ n~~r~~~ (' nm m ime~nf rho Thi ~rc ~nn Rpa' o ~ T R "~ i Total Estimated Population Between 2000 and 2030 Master Planned Yelm and Yelm Urban Growth Area Dwelling Units from TRPC Exhibit B 2005-2030+ 2030 Medium Vested or 2000 Growth Population Additional recently approved Population Growth 2005- Dwelling Units 1,200 dwelling 2030 2005-2030 units Presubmission 4,385 11,480 5,890 2,775 Review 5,000 to 6,000 dwelling units Source: Thurston County Profile, 2005: TRPC Small Area Population Estimates ? TRPC traditionally updates population and employment forecasts every 3-5 years, and released the most recent small area (city and rural) populations forecasts in Julv of 2005. The latest release was prior to the proposal of the Thurston Highlands master planned community in Yelm, which may include 5.000 to 6,000 new dwelling units. The buildout of this development may exceed the time range of the 2030 forecast. TRPC will continue to monitor residential and commercial development activity and any proposed changes in Thurston County's rural zoning Chapter II Page 13 or the size of the Urban Growth Areas, and anticipates updating the small area (city and rural) populations forecasts in 2007. Cities and counties are obliged to conduct their planning using population forecasts that are consistent with those developed for their county by the Office of Financial Management (OFM). This means that the forecasts used by each county must fall within the range of the High, Intermediate, and Low OFM series. Each county then determines the growth allocations for each city and its UGA, in consultation with the cities. In its County-Wide Planning Policies, Thurston County determines what forecast to use within the OFM range by relying on the forecasts of the Thurston Regional Planning Council (TRPC). Likewise, the County relies on TRPC to determine realistic allocations of population, in consultation with the cities. The most recent small area (city and rural) TRPC forecast was released in July 2005 and adopted in 2006. Basis for Public Facility and Utility Planning The City of Yelm uses the , h., +ho .,o~. ten, ~~ Medium Density (population of 11,480 by 2030) for planning utilities and public facilities within the city limits and Urban Growth Area. The use of the Medium Growth assumption for such planning is consistent with the regional model adopted as part of the regional allocation process. The City may also use a 50-year planning horizon for certain portions of public facilities as detailed in public facility plans. Range of Accuracy on Projections and Trends The Thurston Regional Planning Council (TRPC) has completed population and employment proiections beginning in the 1970's. The County wide long range proiections have proven to be generally pretty reliable. The smaller scale (e.q. individual cities) and shorter time periods (e.g. 5 - 10 years) are more variable. Consequently, the TRPC tracks growth and updates the projections every 3-5 years or so in order to make adjustments to proiections that can be as accurate as possible for county, city and urban growth areas. E9FF}Fr}F~flitjF~-~afl-R~if~Q~J~/2F~hP-F} ..+ 7n .,ea~~-~ T r~-~aT ~ ~.,,e~ +h.,+ .,.,., ...,~mb 0 Plag---Wher-e-fre~d~ indisa~ a~axt~r~e~mer~thar~-ice ^f +ho „~,,;o,.+o,+ +~er~, Fe~Few-+s~ar~a~ted ta-~eterm~r~a~~etf~~-4t,~e~a~sF^^~, *~,~~~ plan noon! +n he ro~iiouiorl nr m~rlifo~J Yelm School District Growth Planning The Yelm School District enrollment increased by an average annual rate of 2.4% between the 1990/1991__ school year and the 2000/2001 school year. Between the 2003/2004 and 2004/2005 school years the rate of change was 4.2%. The school district will track student growth for planning purposes by determining the student production rate per household. Chapter II Page 14 tda~gen-~s~~-;i+„ ~i ~ ~ , ,~~ a~°'a ;~wth-Taie~f-~#-ia~s te-ie os~ rest g ~r - Student Enrollment, 1990-2005 Yelm Public School District Source Washington State Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction www kl2 wa us C. Urban Growth Area Boundaries Goals and Objectives of the Yelm Urban Growth Area Boundary The Urban Growth Area is a product of joint planning with the Board of Thurston County Commissioners after review and recommendation by the Urban Growth Management Committee. The Urban Growth Area is designed to permit growth to occur, at urban densities, during the next 20 years, while assuring adequate facilities and the preservation of sufficient land to assure adequate open space and preservation of critical areas. The area must also contain sufficient land area to assure reasonable choice and variety in meeting residential, commercial, and industrial needs and a reasonable allowance of reserve areas to provide a competitive and affordable land on which new development should occur. 9+~ 0 .See Chapter III Table 1 and 2 for estimates of land needed to accommodate population growth and land supply vs. demand. 2. The Planning Subarea Characterization of the Yelm Growth Area The key elements used to identify the property in and around the City of Yelm are as follows: a. Characterized by urban growth or adjacent to territory already characterized by urban growth. b. Served or planned to be served by municipal utilities. c. Near urban areas and characterized by the ability to support urban growth. d. Follows logical boundaries. Chapter II Page 15 Yelm 3 301 4 172 4 172 4 525 4 671 4 737 4 936 2.4% 4.2% e. Provides adequate room for growth. f. Reflects citizen preference. 3. Urban Growth Area Boundaries ~~cnrr~TCrm I I(_~ Rn~~nrl~rieo Dlonninn Dnlinioo io ohn~ein o4 \/nlumo I 11A~n 1 e e The Plan identifies ebe~t-ter-a}-growth boundaries which are designed to encourage development at urban levels of density on urban services. The City of Yelm will not annex beyond the ohnr+_+crm Urban Growth Boundary and will extend utilities beyond the City limits only when a public health emergency requiring such action is approved by the County, and will not impose a financial burden on the City. ~I~n^vr~rcenn ",~r~Qafaes-wi la-f~~Fev+ewed-nst -less-t#ae-ev° n~r,~e~ea~s-f^~~~teeoy uii+h Ohio Dl~n D. The Planning Sub-Areas "East" Planning Area (see Map 10) The East Planning Area is bounded by the Burlington Northern Railroad tracks on the west, the Centralia Power Canal on the north and east, and State Route 510 on the south. a. Urban Growth The East Planning Area is characterized by significant commercial development within the City. The Urban Growth Area is presently characterized by awell-established road network and areas of urban and suburban densities, as well as some property at lower densities, and a potential for future growth. The land is relatively free of environmentally sensitive lands, other than the aquifer which is shallow and uncapped, and is generally suitable for more intensive development provided groundwater controls are established. Wised, as--weN~s~Phased utility planning will be used to facilitate development at urban levels of density. b. Municipal Utilities The East Planning Area is within the water service area of the City and development at any higher-level density requires sewers, since most of the area is underlain by an uncapped drinking water aquifer. Lower density areas are presently served by water, but not sewer services. Areas using on-site septic systems would be regulated through a sewer/septic utility, until sewers and higher density development is available. Chapter II Page 16 c. Logical Boundaries The railroad, the state highway, and the canal make logical physical boundaries for the East Planning Area, which is one of the two planning areas within the City which are closest to Pierce County and the growth occurring in the Roy-McKenna area. 2. "South" Planning Area (see Map 11) The South Planning area is bounded by State Highway 510 on its north and west boundaries. The east boundary is the Centralia Power Canal and the south boundary is the base of a ridge which reflects a logical point of division between the urban and rural areas. a. Urban Growth The core of the South Planning Area is part of the urban center of the community. Anew school site is located on the western boundary of the site and the northern boundary is the commercial development prevalent along State Highway 510. The area close to the existing city limits is substantially developed in suburban lots, which is the anticipated development pattern. The area near the City contains few limitations for development and is considered appropriate for urban levels of development. b. Municipal Utilities The South Planning Area is served or planned to be served by City sewer and water. City sewer is expected to be provided in the area. Due to the substantial recent development on septic tanks, the City anticipates using a septic maintenance program to monitor and assure adequate sewer service in this planning area until sewer lines are extended to facilitate urban growth. c. Logical Boundaries The state highways and the canal provide logical physical features for the urban boundary. The southern boundary is a physical feature and potential state highway corridor, which provides a logical area within which the City will provide urban services. The 1enUrban Growth Boundary area includes an existing Agriculture/Environmentally-Sensitive Area which is included because (~nndevelopment is expected over time and the area makes a logical service boundary. 3. "Southwest" Planning Area (see Map 12) The Southwest Planning Area is bounded by Fort Lewis on the west, 93 Ave SW and Highway 507 on the north, Highway 510 on the east, and the City Limits on the south. Chapter II Page 17 a. Urban Growth More than 90% of the Southwest Planning Area is included within the City of Yelm as part of the Southwest Yelm Annexation Area. The area is being planned as the Thurston Highlands Community. The area will have a mix of single family and multifamily residential uses as well as open space, parks, school sites, and commercial spaces. The overall average density of the Planned Community is ~ 4 units per acre (gross density). b. Municipal Utilities All of the growth in the Southwest Planning Area is planned to be served by sewer and water from the City of Yelm. Any on-site systems approved in advance of sewer approval will be required to participate in and hook up to the extended sewers and would be subject to the City septic maintenance utility. The area is projected to contain a main water reservoir for the City, as well as a storage facility integrated into the golf course ponds, for irrigation water storage. The irrigation water may be recycled from the City's water treatment facility. c. Logical Boundaries The Southwest Planning Area is marked by a single large property ownership, Thurston Highlands, which is completely within the present City limits. Fort Lewis, 93rd, and the state highways are all used for planning purposes to define limits of sewer and water service areas and provide a logical boundary. The teag-te~Urban Growth Boundary area includes an Environmentally- Sensitive/Agriculture area. The area is surrounded by roads, utilities, and other urban development, and is included to ensure a logical and cost- effective service area boundary. 4. "Northwest" Planning Area (see Map 13) The Northwest Planning Area is bounded on the north by the Centralia Power Canal, on the east by the Burlington-Northern Railroad, on the south by 93rd Avenue and SR 510, and on the west by the north-south centerline of Section 14, Township 17N, Range 1 E and the south line of the north half of Sections 13 and 14, Township 17N, Range 1 E. a. Urban Growth The easterly portion of the Northwest Planning Area is comprised of one of the most rapidly growing areas in Yelm. The westerly portion, although of a lower residential density, is characterized by the Knight complex, which is used for education, publication, and other business uses, and often hosts programs which result in a periodic influx of visitors for public gatherings. Chapter II Page 18 b. Municipal Utilities The easterly portion of the Northwest Planning Area is to be accommodated by sewer and water service. The westerly portion is outside the ~"gin urban growth boundary and will continue to be served by on-site systems ' until road and sewer improvements are available for extension of urban services. c. Logical Boundaries Major roads such as 93rd and SR 510, and defining features such as the Canal and Fort Lewis provide logical boundaries for the Northwest Planning Area. E. Public Participation 1. Build on Existing Work Done It is the policy of Yelm to build on work previous done, to include and incorporate prior public programs, such as joint planning, the Economic Summit, parks planning and visioning processes. 2. Provide Public Notice It is the policy of Yelm to provide public notice and opportunities for public participation throughout the Comprehensive Planning process. 3. Provide Opportunity for Public Input It is the policy of Yelm to provide opportunity for public input at all phases of Plan development. Chapter II Page 19 III. LAND USE A. Policy Guide Note: See Chapter 1, Page 1, Introduction, B. Content which identifies portions of the Ip an applicable to the City and UGA areas and C. Applicability for a list of the goals and policies applicable to the unincorporated portion of the Yelm Urban Growth Area. is The purpose of this Land Use Section of the Comprehensive Plan is to identify a pattern of development which will: 1. Promote infill at urban densities; 2. Permit cost effective phasing of urban utilities to enable the community to sustain project growth patterns; 3. Identify policies to guide development regulations which will allow implementation of the Yelm Comprehensive Plan and Joint Plan; and 4. Provide a plan in which the required population is accommodated consistent with the State GMA and goals and policies of this Comprehensive PIan1 afld consistent with the community resources. B. Land Use Patterns which aTe-en fFle-vw+h +~„-~oit~af Y~r~~he-;~+ne~~a~a~ ^^~er~T-:eq~es~ Existing Land Use Designations. Within the city limits, the City of Yelm's current land use patterns are shown on Volume I, Map 2, which shows the existing {894) zoning of the Yelm area. Development regulations will modify density, use, and other standards to be consistent with the criteria below. 2. Proposed Land Use Designations. The future land use plan is to be adopted as the land use and pre-annexation zoning for the City of Yelm. Properties which annex to the City will annex at the identified land use subject to the utility availability overlay. a. Residential The residential areas provide for the bulk of the housing development in the planning areas. Minimum densities will help achieve overall density goals. Development Chapter III Page 20 standards will be established to permit integration of duplexes, townhouses, and accessory units within the City's residential areas, using appropriate controls to protect the safety and quiet enjoyment of the area. Such housing is intended to broaden and increase the variety of housing available in the community and aid in achieving the overall urban density. (i) Urban Growth Area, unincorporated (County jurisdiction) - 1 unit per 5 acres~,gross density) / Yelm will propose development regulations to assure coordination and steps to aid in accomplishing the goals of this plan within the unincorporated urban area. Pursuant to County- wide Planning Policies, the County will adopt coordinated regulations. (ii) City of Yelm , / 4 units per acre - no minimum density (3 units/acre is the expected rg oss density (net density of 5.8 units/acre is currently being achieved) / 6 units per acre (including mobile home parks and subdivisions) - 3 units per acre is minimum density (5 units/acre is the expected rg oss density) / Non-Sewered Overlay (all City lands where sewer is not yet available) - 1 unit per 5 acres until sewer service is approved through an approved sewer facilities plan designating the long- term disposal site, then underlying zone. Any development within the Non-Sewered Overlay shall be consistent with CWPP 2.1(e) as further defined through development regulations. (iii) Apartment / Medium Density Apartment - 10 units per 1 acre ross densit / High Density Apartment - 20 units per 1 acre (gross density), 15 acre minimum lot size (iv) Mixed Use (Planned Developments) in Residential Areas Mixed use developments are used for larger parcels to provide a variety of uses, more efficient use of open space, and public facilities. Mixed use proposals must accomplish not less than 75% of the underlying density for a property and not more than 125% of the planned maximum density for the property. Mixed use developments must be able to screen or buffer impacts of non- residential uses from existing or potential residential developments, and contain all open space and recreation areas within the site. Chapter III Page 21 The minimum acreage for a mixed use development shall be 40 acres. Mixed use developments may have 5% of the gross area in neighborhood commercial - no use is to be larger than 5,000 square feet, 25% of the net land area in medium density or high density apartments, and 25% of the gross land area in open space, with not less than 5 acres of improved park space dedicated to the City. Development standards should be created to encourage mixed-use subdivisions. The "mixed use" alternative must be processed as a project and applies only to eligible properties. b. The ESA category are properties in the long-term urban area but presently in agricultural use and affected by critical lands with environmental limitations. Aland use plan reflecting development potential will have to be approved prior to identifying a final land use map. c. Commercial Yelm has identified three levels of commercial categories to meet community needs: Neighborhood Service/Professional Office, General Retail/Commercial Core, and a Commercial Service district (larger and more intensive commercial uses, including auto and machine oriented, modular housing, and recreational sales, service, and repair. d. Industrial/Warehouse Yelm has identified two industrial categories which are on major transportation routes, near existing utilities, and capable of being buffered for other needed development to avoid undue impact on the community. The two categories are to serve community needs: warehouse, assembly, and distribution; and manufacturing/industrial, focusing on the production of goods, utilities, or services. The former are more appropriate on the perimeter of the industrial area, the latter designed to be included in the industrial core. The County will consider rezoning the industrial- designated area to a light industrial zone, Chapter 20.28 Thurston County Code, prior to annexation. e. Public Institutional/Open Space Yelm has identified two land use designations or categories which reflect public ownership of the land or land permanently set aside as dedicated open space or critical areas. Public purpose lands which are presently identified are shown on the Future Land Use Map, Map #3. C. Changing the Land Use Map 1. The purpose of the Joint Plan is to identify land uses within the Urban Growth Area. The land use designations shown on the Future Land Use Map (Map #3) in the unincorporated area will not take effect until annexation and inclusion within a sewer discharge permit area. Those land uses within the City shall take effect upon approval for inclusion within a sewer discharge area. If the land use Chapter III Page 22 designations are to be changed from the map, such changes should take place in the context of the Comprehensive Plan review. 2. To promote coordinated development, any land use approved in this Joint Plan will not be unilaterally changed by either the City or the County for three years from the date of this plan without written approval from the other jurisdiction. a-Tie-P~a~niflg~~~b-area-kras~;is defl~FtjF-ef3festivee-er~ed+ed~a-oes~~^^ ~ ^^ 3~he-~r~d~~e~ct~;~~+er~--ie et#~;;ee-Ea ;~~i~f~~,:~t~t~ 'ems-t.",o ~eii4hin ion vo~ra fn ~onio }hc ne~~i ~+rcn I~ar~ D. Intergovernmental Coordination The City of Yelm will cooperate with governmental jurisdictions, including the Commander of the Fort Lewis military base and neighboring jurisdictions. The city will take into consideration the current land use and long-range goals of jurisdictions The City will provide notification and opportunity to comment prior to final action on a Comprehensive Plan or development regulation amendment. At a minimum the City will provide notification to state agencies as listed by the Community Trade and Economic Development Department, and the Fort Lewis Base Commander E. Transfer of Development Rights Program The City of Yelm supports the Transfer of Development Rights program to support certain rural programs. Proper regulations need to ~~eueleped--t~assure that such a program is not counterproductive to urban goals and objectives of this plan. The City and County have established acounty-wide Transfer of Development Rights program, in which some portion of the density range within the low-density residential designation is achievable through the purchase of transferred development rights rather than allowed outright. The objective of a county-wide Transfer of Chapter III Page 23 Development Rights program is to support conservation of important natural and/or cultural resources (e.g. long-term agricultural lands, historic properties, or significant wildlife habitat). ~E. The Planning Sub-Areas =City of Yelm and UGA Land Needs Assessment The community is divided into four sub-areas to permit the identification of logical service areas and the development and monitoring of the goals and policies of this Comprehensive Plan. The subareas also provide a reasonable basis for the urban growth area lands needs assessment which is set forth in the tables below. ~-~- Q '~ v,z i17 ~ ini~o -T-~--m-rrca {~~la~+efl~Fwvv~h in ~k~~area ~e 1 ~a~ee~le ~hrea9h ~h~-rya, =o ; ~, ~+ +ho ,~~~'~ a' ~ •~ Chapter III Page 24 ~-~6F~S ~+~ior'+nc 4~+rno~ rlcnci~~i of it rl~~iollinn i ini~c nor nc~ rlc~iolnncrl a6F24 Chapter III Page 25 Table 1 -Land Needed to Accommodate Population Growth 11.480 Master Planned Projected population at near 2030' Dwelling Units1 2005-2030+ Amount of population growth 5,890 Vested or recently expected between 2005 and 2030 approved 1,200 Approximate number of housing units 2,775 units dwelling units needed to accommodate the ro~ected rowth.2 Approximate number of acres needed 694 acres Presubmission Review for housing, based on average target 5,000 to 6,000 density of 4 dwelling units per net dwelling units developed acre Source: Thurston Regional Planning Council -Population and Employment Forecast - 2006. TRPC traditionally updates population and employment forecasts every 3-5 years. and released the most recent-small area (city and rural) populations forecasts in Julv of 2005. The latest release was prior to the proposal of the Thurston Highlands master planned community in Yelm, which may include 5,000 to 6.000 new dwe_Iling units. The buildout of this development may exceed the time range of the 2030 forecast. TRPC will continue to monitor residential and commercial development activity and any proposed changes in Thurston County's rural zoning or the size of the Urban Growth Areas. and anticipates updating the small area (city and rural) populations forecasts in 2007. 2 If 2,775 units were built to accommodate the projected population -household size would average 2.1 people per household (accommodated in new units). Table 2 Analysis of Land Supply vs. Demand. 2000-2025 Yelm and Yelm Urban Growth Area (UGA) Chapter III Page 26 Source: Buildable Lands Report for Thurston County. TRPC. 2002 Chapter gEal ~ ~3 t~ ~~ f f ~--~ ~~ Page 28 Chap et rill IV. HOUSING A. Introduction This housing element addresses the housing needs of the City of Yelm and its UGA. The goal of the City of Yelm is to establish a baseline for evaluating the growth of the community and to assure that adequate facilities are available to serve the needs of the community.91- The housing element considers population and income characteristics; housing characteristics, including the condition of the existing housing stock; housing problems; and strategies. It then sets forth the goals and policies that will be used to encourage the provision of affordable housing in the City of Yelm. The capacity utilities and planned densities within the UGA provide ample opportunity to meet housing needs above the median incomes levels. Growth Management Act Requirements The Growth Management Act requires Yelm to meet the relevant planning goals in the Act. The relevant goal for housing elements is Goal 4: "Housing. Encourage the availability of affordable housing to all economic segments of the population of this State; promote a variety of residential densities and housing types; and encourage preservation of existing housing stock." This housing element contains a number of goals and policies designed to encourage the availability of affordable housing, promote variety in housing, and encourage the preservation of existing housing. a~ ~. ,; Population estimates for the Yelm Urban Growth Area (UGA) were obtained from the TRPC and ,the X588 2000 census In many of the tables, data is shown for both Yelm and either Thurston County overall or unincorporated Thurston County. This information is provided only for purposes of comparing the Yelm data with other local data. Chapter XIV Page 29 2. County-Wide Planning Policies The City and County will institute measures to encourage the availability of affordable housing for all incomes and needs and ensure that each community includes a fair share of housing for all economic segments of the population by: 7.1 Establishing a process to accomplish a fair share distribution of affordable housing among the jurisdictions. 7.2 Working with the private sector, Housing Authority, neighborhood groups, and other affected citizens to facilitate the development of attractive, quality low and moderate income housing that is compatible with the surrounding neighborhood and located with easy access to public transportation, commercial areas and employment centers. 7.3 Accommodating low and moderate income housing throughout each jurisdiction rather than isolated in certain areas. 7.4 Exploring ways to reduce the costs of housing. 7.5 Examining and modifying current policies that provide barriers to affordable housing. 7.6 Encouraging a range of housing types and costs commensurate with the employment base and income levels of their populations, particularly for low, moderate and fixed income families. 7.7 When possible, provide assistance in obtaining funding and/or technical assistance for the expansion or establishment of low cost affordable housing for low, moderate and fixed income individuals and families. This housing element was written to be consistent with the County-Wide Planning Policies. B. Inventory and Analysis Population and Demographics a. Population The population of Yelm has grown irregularly over the last ~ 75 years. As shown in €~fe--Table 1 below, the largest increases occurred during theme-97A's 1990's, ~;:;+~a-more than doubling e~the population. Population increased by 35% between 2000 and 2005. It is anticipated this growth rate will continue over the next 25 years. The 1970's increase is attributed to a program of the federal Farmers Home Administration (FmHA) to provide low-cost loans for low-income families relocating to rural communities. sfewer Q;v ohm ~klc3wever, gGrowth since the 1980's has been high, in part due to people searching Chapter XIV Page 30 for more affordable housing and the general pattern of population increase for Thurston County. Southern Pierce County, directly across the Nisqually River, is also growing rapidly and Yelm is seeing spillover growth from Pierce County. ~Fea,= ~epelafiee ~se~e . ~8 ~4 ~ --- ~949 X78 -~ 4~A 47A X4:-3 ~A 4~ ~9 -978 6~8 3.1-~ 4~A -1-;~7 3:3 4~ ~5 Table 1 Historic Population Change for City of Yelm Year Population Average Annual 1930 384 --- 1940 378 -0.2% 1950 470 2.2% 1960 479 0.2% 1970 628 2.7% 1980 1,294 7.5% 1990 1,337 0.3% 2000 3,289 9.4% 2005 4,455 7.0% Source 1930 to 2000 - U.S Bureau of the Census 2005 Washington State Office of Financial Management TRPC Small Area Population Estimates; The Profile. Note: Includes growth by annexation. Chapter XIV Page 31 Table 2 Population Estimates, Yelm and Yelm UGA 1995, 2000-2005 Preliminary Jurisdiction Estimate Estimate Total 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Yelm C~ 2,295 3,289 3,420 3,485 3,830 4,150 4,455 UGA 1,085 1,095 1,110 1,105 1,105 1,115 1,135 Total 3,380 4,384 4,530 4,590 4,935 5,265 5,590 Source: 1930 to 2000 - U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2005 Washinoton State Office of Financial Manaoement: UGAs -TRPC Small Area Population Estimates. Table 3 Population Projections - Yelm and Yelm Urban Growth Area 2005 and 2030 Population Estimate (2005) 5 590 Master Planned , Dwelling Units' Population Projection (2030) 11,480 2005-2030+ Population Growth (2005 to 2030) 5,890 Vested or recently P roiected Dwelling Units Needed to approved 1,200 _ Accommodate Growth (2005 to 2030) 2,775' dwelling units Presubmission Review Approximate Number of Acres Needed for 5,000 to 6,000 dwelling Source: TRPC Population and Employment Forecast 2006. iTRPC traditionally updates population and employment forecasts every 3-5 years. and released the most recent small area (city and rural) populations forecasts in Julv of 2005. The latest release was prior to the proposal of the Thurston Hghlands master planned community in Yelm, which may include 5,000 to 6.000 new dwelling units. The buildout of this development may exceed the time range of the 2030 forecast. TRPC will continue to monitor residential and commercial development activity and any proposed changes in Thurston County's rural zoning or the size of the Urban Growth Areas. and anticipates updating the small area (city and rural) populations forecasts in 2007. At an average density of 4 units/acre 694 acres would be needed to accommodate 2.775 housing units. The decade of the 1980s showed slower growth. However, growth has picked up during the last several years, in part due to people searching for more affordable housing and the general pattern of population increase for Thurston County. Southern Pierce County, directly across the Nisqually River, is also growing rapidly and Yelm is seeing spillover growth from Pierce County. b. Household Characteristics The table below shows the types and sizes of households within the City. It is anticipated that the average household size will continue to drop due Chapter XIV Page 32 to lower birth rates, increased longevity of elderly persons, and a trend toward later marriage. It should eventually drop close to the rates for the larger metropolitan area (Olympia, Lacey, and Tumwater). Since more housing is needed in general to support anticipated growth, the amount of actual housing will be even greater, since fewer people will live in each dwelling unit. c. Special Needs Population The goal of the community is to provide an opportunity to meet special needs population requirements within the incorporated growth area. Yelm's principal special needs population is the low income elderly. As the City grows the variety of special needs will increase. It is the policy of the City and Thurston County to provide, in all housing designations, provisions for housing for special populations, including group homes. The City will adopt standards and criteria which assure within the community, facilities which provide access, affordability, and choice, and which promote and protect residential neighborhood needs for quiet enjoyment and safety. The Housing Authority of Thurston County and other public and private social service groups, serve special needs households. Not surprisingly, the need here also far exceeds the County, State and Federal ability to provide services or assistance. Table 4 Households Served and on Waiting List for the Thurston County Housing Authority County Households Served and on Wait List in County Ci of Yelm Yelm Total 2006 Households Currently Served 69 3.4% 2.003 2006 Households on Waiting List 194 5% 3,820 Source: Thurston County Housing Authority Chapter XIV Page 33 ~fT C~eTLfff} 4~7 ~A a-9~ X2:4-% a-4;83 ~4:-0°~e 4~ 2~% a-8-,34 °!e G°m~+l° LJ°n~ of I--In~ i~°hnlr! ~ @ 4~A 7r«v Cmnll Cr.mihi /7_A n°nnl°1~~ ~~ ~~' ~ (~f-:~-~`b I nrn° C~mihi /~.~ n°nnl°l ~ ~°~ ~;-~g AA~i°rnnp° Llni~c°hnlrl C~~i~,°,.„,., •~., ,, ~~/~'~ ~~ P~At~~eN°vnia~°~°rct3tQYtFitife-ti F~li-ttltt~~B~6a{~$° c"rmnc° I'Trvu~°ch~'vi~.~rT+i-'rn Table 5 Household Characteristics for Yelm (2000 Yelm County (Overall) Total Households 1.216 81.625 Family Household 807 66.4% 54,981 67.3% Family Household with 505 41.5% 26,896 33.0% Children Under 18 Female Head of Household 175 14.4% 8,429 10.3% Female Household with 130 10.7% 5,712 7.0% Children Under 18 Single Person Households 330 27.1 % 20,473 25.1 Elderly Households (65+) 363 29.8% 16,546 20.3% Average Household Size 2.67 2.50 Note: Percent of total. Percentages total more than 100% because some households fit in more than one category. Source: Census 2000. 2. Income and Affordability a. Introduction A several-step process was used to determine the availability of affordable housing in this section. First, the household income for Yelm was determined and divided into federally-defined poverty categories. Second, information on households spending more than 30% of their income for housing, using standard census bureau income ranges, was determined for both renters and owners. Finally, the resulting information was converted into the federally-defined poverty categories. This resulted in information on Yelm households that spend more than 30% of their income on housing, in each of the federal poverty categories. Chapter XIV Page 34 b. Household Income The household income ranges in dollars for Yelm and unincorporated Thurston County {~90} 1( 999) and the number of households within each range are shown in e-3-Table 6 below. For purposes of this housing element, the federal poverty categories for income are used. These categories vary by community, depending on the median income within the particular community. This often requires converting census data into data that can be used within the federal poverty categories, and may mean the numbers are estimated. For Thurston County, the median income in 1999 was $30;1~7~ 46 975 The federal poverty categories and income for Thurston County, in 49-91999 dollars, are: Extremely low income households -making less than 30% of county median income ($0 - $9;~9 14 093) Very low income households -making between 30% and 50% of county median income ( $14,094-$23,488) Low income households -making between 51 % and 80% of county median income ( $23,489-$37,580) Moderate income households -making between 81 % and 95% of county median income ($~4T8~ -~~T$24,782-$44,626) ~Fel der A 34 m D°rcrv°crti eF ~.4 2;4~~ D°r~v°cni 4~ $5 ; A00--$9;-5~9 ~9 ~ 4~ 7: 7 6~ 44~ a~50 ~ ~ ~ 7A a-5:-3 a-1-x-1-86 $~5-;900---$49;~g ~A 4~4 496 2~ eves; AOA ~9 €r3 4~~ 2-2 ~ 1- Table 6 Household Income for City of Yelm and Thurston Countv (total) 2000 Income in 1999 Yelm Thurston Countv Number Percent Number Percent Households 1,206 100.0 81,666 100.0 Less than $10.000 122 10.1 5,422 6.6 $10,000 - $14,999 100 8_3 4,251 5_2 Chapter XIV Page 35 $15,000 - $24,999 147 12.2 9,099 11.1 $25,000 - $34,999 150 12.4 10,417 12.8 $35,000 - $49,999 253 21.0 14,501 17.8 $50,000 - $74,999 300 24.9 19,489 23.9 $75,000 - $99,999 82 6_8 9,655 11.8 $100,000 - $149,999 40 3_3 6,430 7_9 $150,000 - $199,999 9 0_7 1,160 1_4 $200,000 or more 3 0_2 1,242 1_5 Median Household Income (Dollars) 39,453 ~ 46,975 Source: Census 2000. c. Housing Affordability Housing is generally considered to be affordable if the cost does not exceed 30% of family income. ~-+g-u~eTTables 4-7a~a below shows that for owner-occupied housing in Yelm,-X534.0% (64-196 out of 24574) e# households paid 30% or more of their family income for housing. For owner-occupied housing in Thurston County (overall), ~-7~°~ (49,801 out of 25441,441) of households paid 30% or more. Table 8 shows that for renter-occupied housing, a~238% in Yelm pay 30% or more of their family income for housing, and ~-940% in Thurston County (overall) pay 30% or more. nv~raei i * inirnnn~ ~uuni ncrrnTei +~uun~ nc~n-rei i o~~ +h.,., Q~ n nnn ~~ _ e -a-A0~43A = ~4~°/a ~3 = 4~-8-% 2~ = 29-~°~e $~A~AO-* 9-A 2a = ~% * 0 Chapter XIV Page 36 Table 7 Households Spending as a Percent of Income on Housing (Owner-Occupied) Selected Monthly Owner Costs Yelm Thurston County as a Percentage of Household N b P t r N b Percent Income in 1999 er um ercen um e Less than 15.0 percent 103 17.9 12,218 29.3 15.0 to 19.9 percent 89 15.5 7.424 17.8 20.0 to 24.9 percent 82 14.3 6,873 16.5 25.0 to 29.9 percent 104 18.1 5,125 12.3 30.0 to 34.9 percent 63 11.0 3,186 7_7 35.0 percent or more 133 23.2 6,615 15.9 Not computed - - 190 .5 Source: Census 2000. Table 8 Households Spending as a Percent of Income on Housing (Renter-Occupied) Gross Rent as a Percentage of Yelm Thurston County Household Income in 1999 Number Percent Number Percent Less than 15.0 percent 105 21.9 4,009 14.8 15.0 to 19.9 percent 62 12.9 4,074 15.1 20.0 to 24.9 percent 71 14.8 3,999 14.8 25.0 to 29.9 percent 45 9_4 2,941 10.9 30.0 to 34.9 percent 24 55_0 2,504 9_3 35.0 percent or more 159 33.2 8,385 31.0 Not computed 13 2_7 1,108 4_1 Source: Census 2000. Y2~Fi~ o ~uuni nc~nTei ~uuni nc~n-rei 2$-24 °-~% ~8/4$~ = a4°7e ~4/~37 = a-~$°~e 3A---34°/a 3~~ _ e _ ~4°~e 0 Chapter XIV Page 37 , F,~,. to ~ e~rr~}~~~ ~ „ ~ e s~h vcr~e~ n I ~ ~ r vim~ FHI - T rr Dl~nninn (`n~ ~nnil nnn„~~~~~nfnrm~fin ~ T vtc~ti-FC~-ii ar n infn fho fev °~ui f c~ tit-fetl nnv ~f nrioa fnr innnmc The fnlln~~,inn fins pro /4:\ - - - c ~hnu,~ fho ro~i il4c• i~v r~r`7-`~cr`"y c r°n°vrrr'9 "gaTC-~°J- ~^v~rrzrrcrcvarr~: t~olr•~il ~finnc nlc~cc refer fn fho r frnm L i l~fhloon Ri ~rnoco fiflor! n Gvfrcmcl„ In,~, innnmo: A~ 'i~~ d~ tom' i-FY n 0 Chapter XIV Page 38 Yelm 0-30% of Median 102 40 142 204 >30 to 50% of Median 130 20 150 145 >50 to 80% of Median 220 196 416 217 >80 to 95% of Median 37 146 183 112 Remainder 14 374 388 528 i ~. Thurston County Total 0-30% of Median 1,777 3,004 4,781 8,901 >30 to 50% of Median 8,685 1,735 10,420 8,334 >50 to 80% of Median 13,659 6,761 20,420 14,408 >80 to 95% of Median 2,049 6,847 8,896 6,898 Remainder 1,760 36,842 38,602 43,124 Note: This table is not intended to show aone-to-one relationship between the number of households within an income range and the number of units available within that same income range. In reali a larue number of units in the mid-to-lower ran es are rented or owned >~ those who are amending less than 30% of their income for these units. These households "buy-down" and effectively lower their housing costs while at the same time reducing the inventory available for those with no other options. Explanation Rentals: Gross Rent _SF3 H62 Universe: Specified renter-occupied housing units• Rent Asked -SF3 H59 Universe: Specified vacant-for-rent housing units. Owner: Value for all Owner-Occupied Housing Units SF3 H84 Universe: Owner-Occupied Housin Units: Price Asked _SF3 H87 Universe: Specified vacant-for-sale-only housine units. Households: Household Income in 1999 -SF3 P52 Universe: Households. Source: 2000 Census. TRPC 3. Data on Housing a. Authorized Housing Units 1=iQ~+Fe-Table 10~ below shows the total authorized housing units as of 2000 and estimated for 2005 ,~ f.,,,ro innl, ,iJc~ evi~+inn na~er~ed-The data show ° nro~~or nornon~~nc r,f that single-family homes in Yelm and in the county make up 75% of the housing stock (78% if manufactured homes are included). ~"~^ ~^ +"° ^^~~^+~~ Chapter XIV Page 39 TABLE 9 CITY OF YELM AND THURSTON COUNTY ESTIMATE OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING STOCKS AND HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME CATEGORY, 2000 _ ..,,~ ~,-~" - '' e~~ae ~ ' ~~ ~e~ ~y. 4 ~ ~ a~-~~~~~ ~ ~A~a~~ ~ e-38~,-a'~ i ~~ ~~ ~ I ~ ~ 1 ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~4-x-1-4 ~ ~ ~ s:4 ~-~ ~~ 0 ~ a-~ e~ ~ ~°~ ~-c~ ~~~~ ~ ~ Page 40 Chap ert XN Table 10 Total Small Area Dwelling Unit Estimates by Type Yelm and Yelm UGAs, Thurston County Tota12000 and 2005 Yelm C~ 865 330 130 1,160 475 135 UGA 270 15 140 295 15 150 Total 1140 340 270 1,450 485 285 Sources• Thurston Regional Planning Council Bucoda. Lace y. Olympia. Rainier. Tenino, Tumwater, Yelm. and Thurston County building departments' U S Bureau of the Census Washington State Office of Financial Management. TABLE 11 CITY OF YELM AND THURSTON COUNTY TRENDS IN HOUSING COSTS, INCOME AND HOUSING TENURE, 1990 TO 2000 Selected Owner Occupied Home Values and Renter Occupied Gross Rent 1990 Median Value 79.700 56.400 2000 Median Value 145.200 117,400 Percent Increase 82% 108% 1990 Median Gross Rent 460 379 2000 Median Gross Rent 655 625 Percent Increase 42% 65% Income Median Household Income in 1989 30.976 19,053 Median Household Income in 1999 46,975 39,453 Percentlncrease 52% 107% Tenure 1990 Owner Occupied 40.226 277 1990 Renter Occupied 21,924 190 1990 Percent Owner Occupied 65% 59% 1990 Percent Renter Occupied 35% 41 2000 Owner Occupied 54.364 736 2000 Renter Occupied 27.261 479 2000 Percent Owner Occupied 67% 61 2000 Percent Renter Occupied 33% 39% Sources: 1990 Census and 2000 Census. SF1 and SF3 files. Note: Housing costs have increased since 1999. Average sales price between March and Mav 2006 was approximately $232 000' rents ranged from $495 to $1475. Source: Multiple Listing Service. Chapter XIV Page 41 4. Analysis Yelm's Urban Growth Area is expected to grow substantially during the next ~A25 years, and household size to continue to decrease. ~ ~ norcnn~ r,cr hn~ ioehn~rl. These two factors point to a continuing demand for affordable housing. Although housing costs are less expensive than in many other Thurston County jurisdictions, average income is also lower. As €~-re Table 76 and 8 illustrates, there is an existing need for affordable housing that is expected to increase proportionate to the population. Based on a review of ~9A2000 data, adequate single-family housing is likely to be available. While multi-family units are being constructed, there is likely a need for more multi- family housing for an aging population, and a shift to more single person households and later marriage. The adopted Land Use Plan provides for a variety of additional housing types and ~nnro,coc +ho multi-family zoned property income is also lower. ~~ ~~ ~~ ~~ „„,,~~ ~~ Yelp pp ~~ ~~ ~~ ~~~~ tYtltFttlCt D° rr-cTV°crnr~ t"!~7-Fi~ p° rr-crv°c'nrt~~~ Bgitt --'I•-9gA ~ p~ 9~~~GG ~4~~~ .~ 5'~CC4 i-H 'd :'d'd 1--r, l--f-l~ i-d ~ dd 4~A--~9~4 ~ ~~ ~9~ 4-~4 ~ ~~ ~4 32~~ ~A---~-S6g 3~ 5~ a-4,~8 X49 3a- ~ ~2 g:~4 $ ~A ~§-~6 a-A; A44 44~~ * o TABLE 12 YELM AND COUNTY HOUSING STOCK AGE Built Before 1980 (1980 and older) 565 45,393 1980 to 2000 (598 of these built since 1990) 752 41,259 Yelm Housing Stock Age by Decade Built Before 1939 120 6,138 1940 - 1959 82 8.530 1960 - 1969 54 9,356 1970 - 1979 309 21,369 1980 - 1989 172 17,247 1990 -March 2000 580 24.012 Total 1,317 86,652 Source: Census 2000 Chapter XIV Page 42 C. Goals and Policies Housing Goals and Policies within the Urban Growth Area GOAL 1: Encourage a variety of housing types and densities and a range of affordable housing. Policy 1-1: Monitor the need for special needs housing and work toward increasing opportunities for such housing. Policy 1-2: Review the zoning ordinance to ensure that a range of housing is available throughout the City. Policy 1-3: Encourage opportunities for a range of housing costs to enable housing for all segments of the population. Policy 1-4: Encourage the provision of adequate affordable building sites through appropriate zoning, infrastructure, and the overall regulatory climate. Policy 1-5: Permit a variety of housing types within the residential and mixed use designations to promote the range of alternatives within the community, including but not limited to government assisted housing, housing for low-income families, manufactured housing, multi-family housing, group and foster homes. GOAL 2: Encourage housing with a pedestrian orientation in order to promote a sense of community and safety. Policy 2-1: Review the zoning ordinance and development standards to ensure residents can safely walk to points throughout the City. GOAL 3: Meet County-wide planning policy requirements to ensure a fair share of affordable housing. Policy 3-1: Yelm and Thurston County shall encourage a variety of housing types in the residential designations to assure choice, opportunity, and availability of a fair share of affordable housing throughout the community. Policy 3-2: Yelm and Thurston County should participate with other jurisdictions within the County in a regional process to monitor achieving the Fair Share Affordable Housing targets throughout the County. GOAL 4: Encourage housing that meets adequate safety standards. Policy 4-1: Continue to adopt the most up-to-date and safest building, housing, mechanical and other codes. Chapter XIV Page 43 GOAL 5 GOAL 6 D 1 Policy 4-2: Require owners of unsafe dwelling units to correct significant problems. Promote energy efficient housing to reduce the overall costs of home ownership. Policy 5-1: Support programs that improve existing structures to make them more energy efficient. Policy 5-2: Periodically review energy efficiency requirements adopted by the City to ensure that they are up-to-date. Policy 5-3: Promote residential subdivision designs that maximize solar heating opportunities. Policy 5-4: Accessory dwelling units should be permitted in all residential zones, within the City, provided that development standards and design criteria are satisfied. Conserve and improve the existing housing stock and neighborhoods. Policy 6-1: Support rehabilitation efforts for substandard housing. Policy 6-2: Encourage and facilitate economic development as an important element of improving housing conditions by providing economic opportunity. Future Needs and Alternatives Introduction This section discusses the number of affordable housing units within each income category that will be needed from one forecast period to the next. These figures are based upon the population forecast approved by the Urban Growth Management Committee of Thurston Regional Planning Council (TRPC) in 1993. Since Yelm is required to plan for the growth anticipated within the UGA, the estimates are for the entire Yelm Urban Growth Area (UGA) rather than for the current City limits. The estimates are shown in 'I-Table 14 below: Chapter XIV Page 44 Table 13 Estimated Housing Need for Low and Moderate Income Housing by Income Category and Forecast Period for Yelm and Yelm Urban Growth Area (UGA) fAll figures Subject to Roundingl Year Need ex low Need very low Need low Need moderate TOTAL 91-92 22 17 18 6 63 93-95 18 14 15 5 52 96-2000 24 16 17 5 62 2001-05 16 12 13 4 45 2006-10 19 15 16 5 55 2011-15 22 17 17 6 62 TOTAL: 339 2. Population Estimates for Yelm and Yelm UGA These figures are }^~°n frnm o mourn fn fh, .. ........................... ...-.._.. ., .--- ~..~ _._._~ ~---- - -r---------- - -u---- --- -------- ^P ^erx~ea+ °~nn+r~g." the target population +s-for the "Medium Growth--F~tl Oeps+fy" scenario as agreed to by all jurisdictions within Thurston County in 2OO6. ~n shot mourn Initial population (4~~2000): 3~~ 4,385 Target population (20304x): 11,48099 The estimated need projected in 1993 is approximately 48°%12% of the total new housing stock anticipated in the Yelm growth area over the next 25 years. Table 14 above outlines the fair share projections for Yelm and its UGAby income level. The table could be updated if a regional committee replicated the work completed in 1993. It is important to note. that this information does not mean that people in these_ income levels are not currently housed. Nor does it mean that this many people in the future will be without housing. It does mean that many are and will be paving far more than 30 percent of their income for housing. This leaves them even less money for transportation, medical care, clothing insurance, etc. And this further reduces the quality of their lives. 3. Strategies for Housing to Meet Year ~5- 2030 Need Provide Infrastructure to Support Housing Needs The land use plan accommodates a variety of housing types to promote choice and opportunity in housing. In neighborhoods a variety of housing types and densities are encouraged to enable adequate sewer and water facilities at Chapter XIV Page 45 reasonable prices. This is key to accommodating a variety of densities at affordable prices. The City focus under this plan is to assure that such facilities are planned for and available to meet growth demands which reflect the changing population needs. Housing patterns will be monitored to assure that the City is continuing to meet its required housing needs. Adjustments will be made throughout Yelm and the Yelm Urban Growth Area during periodic revisions to the Plan where monitoring shows aSub-Area need for change to assure that required housing needs continue to be met. Encourage Diversity of Housing Types to Offer Choice and Affordability Diversity in housing types and location will help to increase housing choices. This will help meet the changing housing requirements associated with a changing population. Households are getting smaller. More people live alone. People are living longer. Some prefer to live in condominiums or townhouses to be free of the maintenance requirements of a detached house. Provide Housing Choice In Transportation Efficient Areas Meeting housing needs especially for low income and elderly means expanding housing opportunities near essential services and accessible transportation. This allows households an opportunity to choose to own fewer cars. Studies show that household vehicle costs consume 18 percent of income and are the second largest household expenditure after housing. (Source: Livable Places and Victoria Transportation Policy Institute, 2002.) Low income households in low density suburban areas spend 25 percent of their income on transportation. (Source: Transportation Research Board, 2001.) Maintain Existing Older Housing Stock Keeping and maintaining the existing affordable housing (much of which is the existing older housing stock) is generally a more effective strategy than truing to create an equivalent quantity of comparably priced new housing. Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funds are used to rehabilitate deteriorating housing units in the rural county and south county towns but the need exceeds the available federal funding. Chapter XIV Page 46 XIV. MISCELLANEOUS PROVISIONS Note: A list of the goals and policies applicable to the unincorporated portion of the Yelm Urban Growth Area is located in Exhibit G. A. Property Rights The right of citizens of the Urban Growth Area to be secure in their property is a fundamental policy of this Comprehensive Plan. The need of the community to provide adequate public service and to protect the peace and quiet enjoyment of private property is a fundamental policy of this Comprehensive Plan. Private property shall not be taken for public purpose without due process and just compensation where required. B. Permits The policy of the City of Yelm and Thurston County is to process permits in a timely and efficient manner in order to foster the goals of this Comprehensive Plan and Joint Plan. Development regulations will be integrated and coordinated to achieve this purpose. C. Citizen Participation The City of Yelm and Thurston County support the Growth Management Act policies to encourage and promote citizen participation within the Urban Growth Area. Development regulations should provide for ample notice and opportunity to participate in key stages of the planning and development process. D. Growth Management Act Planning Yelm is a small community and without resources to fully articulate all GMA goals and objectives into this Plan. Small cities and towns are authorized to use an abbreviated process, which Yelm has elected to do. Yelm is committed to continued review and improvement of its Comprehensive Plan and development regulations, as resources are available. E. Comprehensive Plan Amendment The Comprehensive Plan is to be amended no more than once any calendar year, except in emergencies. Development regulations will identify an annual calendar to facilitate the review and amendment process. The City plans for annual review will be consistent with the policies of Thurston County for amendment of the County's Comprehensive Plan. Yelm' yeafs~,",° ~^m urban growth boundaries shall be reviewed not less than every ten years. Any change to the long-term boundary must be consistent with the County- Wde Planning Policies. Chapter XIV Page 70 F. Growth Management Definitions and Concepts 1. Conformance -The degree to which all plans within the Urban Growth Area, including plans of other municipal corporations or state agencies comply with and/or promote the goals and policies of this Comprehensive Plan. Where inconsistent goals cannot be met by a single plan, consistency shall be measured by the degree to which the overall goals and objectives are met by the proposed action. 2. Consistency -The degree to which a project or development accomplishes the goals and objectives of this Comprehensive Plan. Some goals are mutually exclusive or incompatible as applied to a specific project. In the event of conflict, consistency is measured by the degree to which the overall goals and objectives of the Plan are met by the project. 3. Concurrency -The availability of adequate facilities to meet the public needs imposed on the Urban Growth Area by any proposal requiring a permit or approval by the City or County. All projects shall be reviewed to determine that parks, schools, fire, sewer, water, and transportation will be available or are to be planned and funded within six years of the date of the project approval. Development regulations shall identify levels of service and the plans of implementing the Concurrency requirement. Chapter XIV Page 71 EXHIBIT B Population Projections Note: Existing Exhibit B will be deleted and replaced with a new Exhibit B that reflects the currently adopted population projections. These projections are updated every 3- 5years. Exhibit B Page B-1 MEMORANDUM TO: Thurston Regional Planning Council FROM: Veena Tabbutt, Senior Planner DATE: June 30, 2005 SUBJECT: Population Forecast Small Area Allocations PURPOSE Approve Population Forecast Small Area Allocations. Summary: Staff has prepared new Population Forecast Small Area Allocations These allocations are based on the Regional Population and Employment Forecast approved by the Council in November 2004. The allocations have been reviewed by the Forecast Advisory Committee, which consists of staff members for all jurisdictions in Thurston County, members from various planning commissions, representatives from the Transportation Advisory Board and Technical Advisory Committee, and representatives from local organizations including the commercial and residential building community, and the environmental community. These allocations will be used for transportation, sewer, water, land use, school, and other local government planning purposes. The final phase in the Forecast Allocations will be the Employment Forecast Small Area Allocations Exhibit B Page B-2 BACKGROUND TRPC develops updated population and employment forecasts every three to five years. These forecasts are used for transportation, sewer, water, land use, school, and other local governmental planning purposes. They are also used by the private sector for business planning. TRPC has been preparing these forecasts periodically since the late 1960s. We are in the midst of another update. On November 5th the Thurston Regional Planning Council adopted the County-Wide Population and Employment Forecast. Given the forecast of future population county-wide, it must be decided where the growth will go based on the adopted plans and policies of the local cities, towns, and the county. County-wide figures are allocated to the planning area level using a large database of developable lands, development trends, and zoning densities. Only then can planning for streets, utilities, school sites, park sites, and other public services and facilities take place. ISSUES A key assumption in the Population Forecast Small Area Allocations is that there will be no major change in land use policy for the Thurston County or the cities and towns within Thurston County, the Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation or the Nisqually Indian Tribe over the period of the forecast. Policies that are assumed to remain constant are found in the comprehensive plans and related documents from the fall of 2004, and include (but are not limited to): • Zoning districts and zoning density calculations (deductions and density ranges) • Critical Areas Ordinances • Size and location of urban growth boundaries (annexations are an assumption of the model) • Adopted sewer and water plans In 2005 the population forecast small area allocations could be considered BASELINE allocations if there are major changes in any of the policies outlined above. The BASELINE allocations can then be used to evaluate the effects of any major changes in policy that have occurred in 2005, or may occur in the future. REQUESTED ACTION: After reviewing the attachments, approve Population Forecast Small Area Allocations as BASELINE allocations. 70:Ib Attachments Exhibit B Page B-3 Table 1: Comparison of new TRPC Population Forecast Small Area Allocations with the previous allocation'. Lacey &UGA New 64,600 73,900 82,900 92,200 99,900 106,700 Old 67, 900 75, 500 83, 000 89, 600 94, 600 N/A Olympia &UGA New 54,500 6Q,900 67,000 72,800 77,900 82,200 Old Sfi;OQO &1,000 67,600 73,600 79,100 N/A Tumwater&UGA New 21,600 24,400 27,100 32,200 37,100 41,600 Old 23, 000 24, 500 28, 500 32, 800 38,100 N/A Bucoda &UGA New 620 650 680 710 760 800 Old 620 630 630 640 640 N/A Rainier &UGA New 1,530 1,760 1,990 2,260 2,510 2,740 Old 1,785 1,970 2,095 2,205 2,315 N/A Tenino &UGA New 1,940 2,030 2,470 2,890 3,280 3',580 Old 1,.630 1,650 1,670 1,740 1;945 IU/A Yelm &UGA New 5,490 6,590 7,690 9,100 10,330 11,480 Old 5, 625 6, 825 8, 325 9, 875 11, 375 N/A Grand Mound UGA New 830 850 870 920 .970 1,000 ' Old 1,325 1,525 1,700 1,.875 2,075 N/A Chehalis Reservation New 30 60 80 110 140 170 Old N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Nisquaffy Reservation New 580 630 710 790 870 940 Old N/A N/A 1V/A N/A NIA IVIA Rural New 72,400 83,300 93,500 104,900 114,300 121,800 Old 78, 400 85.400 91.900 98.500 104, 000 N/A 'Note -added for the Yelm 2006 Comprehensive Plan amendment process. TRPC traditionally updates population and employment forecasts every 3-5 years, and released the most recent small area (city and rural) populations forecasts in July of 2005. The latest release was prior to the proposal of the Thurston Highlands master planned community in Yelm, which may include 5,000 to 6,000 new dwelling units. The buildout of this development may exceed the time range of the 2030 forecast. TRPC will continue to monitor residential and commercial development activity and any proposed changes in Thurston County's rural zoning or the size of the Urban Growth Areas, and anticipates updating the small area (city and rural) populations forecasts in 2007. Exhibit B Page B-4 SUMMARY OF THE NEW ALLOCATIONS Lacey 8 UGA 2030 Rate of Trends: Po ulation: Growth: 106,700 2.0% Within Lacey, initially some growth is likely to shift to what are now the unincorporated urban growth areas (UGAs) as the city becomes developed. Then, as available land supply decreases, Lacey will continue to grow, but it will likely see a decline in share of county-wide growth. Using the buildout" factor, the shift in growth is likely to occur by 2015. Toward the end of the forecast period the growth share in all urban areas, including Lacey, is likely to increase as the demand for multifamily homes increases. This may result in redevelopment in the older nei hborhoods and mixed-use districts. Olympia 8 UGA 2030 Rate of Trends: Po ulation: Growth: 82,200 1.7% Trends in Olympia are very similar to Lacey. Within Olympia, initially some growth is likely to shift to the unincorporated UGAs as the city becomes developed. Then, as available land supply decreases, Olympia will also see a decline in share of county-wide growth. Using the buildout factor, the shift in growth is likely to occur by 2015. Toward the end of the forecast period the growth share in all urban areas is likely to increase as the demand for multifamily homes increases. This may cause redevelopment in the older neighborhoods and mixed-use districts. Tumwater 8 UGA 2030 Rate of Trends: Po ulation: Growth: 41,600 2.7% Tumwater is likely to be the recipient of increased growth shares as the supply of available land is reduced in Lacey and Olympia. This shift in growth will likely begin to occur around 2015, and continue to the end of the forecast period. Most of the increased growth share will be located in what are now the unincor orated urban rowth areas. 11 A buildout factor of 25 percent is applied as an indicator of when to shift growth shares. This factor is calculated by dividing demand by supply. It makes the assumption that in any given forecast interval (5 years) only 25 percent of the total capacity will be available for sale and development. As the total inventory of land or capacity decreases and prices rise, harder to develop lots, partially developed lots, and redevelopment opportunities will be available. The buildout factor will be calibrated for housing type (by zoning district) at the beginning of each forecast period so as to not artificially create a scarcity of capacity in one type of dwelling unit and a surplus in another. Exhibit B Page B-5 Bucoda &UGA 2030 Rate of Trends: Population: Growth: 800 1.0% Bucoda is likely to see only a modest amount of growth. Growth shares may begin to increase in the latter years of the forecast if sewer service becomes available. Rainier &UGA 2030 Rate of Trends: Po ulation: Growth: 2,740 2.4% Historically, Rainier has experienced moderate growth, more than Bucoda and Tenino. It is likely that the growth share in Rainier will remain relatively constant until sewer service becomes available to the cit and UGA. Tenino 8 U GA 2030 Rafe of Trends: Population: Growth: 3,580 2.6% Historically, Tenino has experienced very little growth. It is likely that the growth share in Tenino will increase when sewer service becomes available to the cit and UGA. Ye/m &UGA 2030 Rate of Trends: Po ulation: Growth: 11,480 3.0% Historically, Yelm has been one of the fastest growing communities in Thurston County. It is likely that this trend will continue with growth in commuting, increased accessibility to Yelm, and a large supply of land for residential rowth. Grand Mound UGA 2030 Rate of Trends: Population: Growth: 1,000 0.7% Grand Mound is not likely to see much residential growth. The area is mainl desi Hated for commercial and industrial uses. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation (Thurston County portion only) 2030 Rate of Trends: Po ulation: Growth: 170 7.2% The reservation bisects two counties with most of the population residing in the Gray's Harbor County portion. The Tribe expects to see residential growth in the Thurston County portion. This will likely occur as utilities are available. Exhibit B Page B-6 Nis uall Reservation (Thurston Count ortion onl ) 2030 Rate of Trends: Po ulation: Growth: 940 2.0% The Tribe anticipates a need for 100 homes. The forecast assumes this need will be met by around 2015, after which the rate of growth will continue to the end of the forecast eriod. Rural count 2030 Rate of Trends: Population: Growth: 122,000 2.1 % Overall it is likely that there will be a shift in growth shares from the rural county to the urban areas, so that the split between urban and rural will be around 70 percent urban growth and 30 percent rural growth by the end of the forecast period. This is mainly due to an increasing demand for multifamily housing, which predominately locates in urban areas. Using the buildout factor, the north county rural areas have less available land than those to the south, so it is anticipated that there will be a steady shift of rural growth to the south county until the available land supply is fairly even between the two areas. Rural areas will begin to feel full (the buildout factor will be approached) by 2015, with the exception of the south-central regions of the county where some land will remain available. Overall, the buildout factors in the rural county do not indicate a shift in growth shares of single- family homes to the urban areas. The rural county will continue to receive the majority of new manufactured homes. How does the New Forecast (2004-2005) compare to the Previous Forecast (1998- 19gg)? Lacey &UGA Old New Notes Forecast Forecast 2025 2025 94,600 99,900 With the growth in commuters to Pierce County, Lacey is expected to experience rapid growth. In addition, residential densities in Lacey tend to be higher than comparable zoning districts in Tumwater and Olympia, therefore the capacities are slightly higher than modeled in the revious forecast. Olympia &UGA Old New Notes Forecast Forecasf 2025 2025 79,100 77,900 The forecasts are quite similar. Exhibit B Page B-7 Tumwafer &UGA Old New Notes Forecast Forecast 2025 2025 38,100 37,100 The forecasts are quite similar. Bucoda &UGA Old New Notes Forecast Forecast 2025 2025 640 760 Bucoda now has an UGA so the new forecast includes a larger physical area. Rainier 8 UGA Old New Notes Forecast Forecast 2025 2025 2,315 2,510 Rainier may see slightly higher growth with the addition of a sewer s stem. Tenino &UGA Old New Notes Forecast Forecast 2025 2025 1,945 3,280 Tenino will likely experience higher growth with the addition of a sewer s stem. The new forecast is more consistent with the 1996 forecast. Yelm &U GA Old New Notes Forecast Forecast 2025 2025 11,375 10,330 Yelm will likely still experience rapid growth, at a slightly lower rate than was forecast previously. The growth rate in Yelm has abated somewhat after the initial pent up demand for growth was met after the sewer was put into lace. Grand Mound UGA Old New Notes Forecast Forecast 2025 2025 2,075 970 2000 population estimates for the Grand Mound UGA were revised, leading to a lower forecast. There does not appear to be much capacity for residential growth in the UGA, but there is quite a lot of rowth oin into the Rochester rural sub-area. Exhibit B Page B-8 Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation Old New Notes Forecast Forecast 2025 2025 NA NA TRPC did not provide a forecast for the Tribes in 1998/99. Nis uall Reservation Old New Notes Forecast Forecast 2025 2025 NA NA TRPC did not rovide a forecast for the Tribes in 1998/99. Rural Count Old New Notes Forecast Forecast 2025 2025 104,000 114,300 Capacity in the rural county may have been understated in the 1998/99 forecast as the undersized but legal lots were not included in the invento Exhibit B Page B-9 EXHIBIT G Consolidated List of Policies Applicable to the Unincorporated Yelm Urban Growth Area Note Exhibit G is not required and is no longer deemed necessary as part of the plan It is recommended that it be deleted in full. Refer to Chapter I, Page 1, A. Intent -which notes that "The Yelm Comprehensive Plan represents.... this plan also serves as the Joint Plan between Yelm and Thurston County for Yelm's Urban Growth Area." _B Content -clarified which sections are applicable to the UGA area as well as the City of Yeim. Yelm/Analysis/Yelm Comp Plan and TC Joint Plan Application 5-25.doc Exhibit G Page G-1 YELM PLANNING COMMISSION MINUTES MAY 15, 2006 4:00 P.M. YELM CITY HALL Glen Cunningham called the meeting to order at 4:00 PM Members present: Glen Cunningham, Terry Kaminski, John Graver, Carlos Perez, Norm Allard, and John Thomson. Staff: Grant Beck and Tami Merriman Members Absent: Greg Mattocks -excused Motion No. Approval of Minutes: 06-09 MOTION MADE BY NORM ALLARD, SECONDED BY JOHN THOMSON TO APPROVE THE MINUTES FROM THE APRIL 17, 2006 MEETING. MOTION CARRIED. Public Communications -None: Public Hearing -None Other: Mr. Pete Swensen presented a power point presentation explaining how Thurston County performs the analysis to give the population forecast for the County and local jurisdictions. Due to scheduling conflicts, the next meeting of the Planning Commission will be held on Monday, June 12, 2006. 06-10 MOTION MADE BY NORM ALLARD, SECONDED BY JOHN THOMSON TO ADJOURN. MEETING ADJOURNED AT 5:08 P.M. Respectfully submitted, Tami Merriman, Assistant Planner Glen Cunningham, Chair Date Yelm Planning Commission May 15, 2006 Page 1